PTA、MEG早报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the implementation of PTA's own device maintenance, the inventory continues to decline. However, the downstream terminal demand is still affected by US tariffs, and the liquidity of the PTA spot market is acceptable as warehouse receipts flow out. In the short term, the upward movement of the PTA spot basis is hindered, and the price mainly fluctuates with the cost side. Future attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the crude oil market and the changes in terminal devices around May Day [6]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol price center is operating at a low level. Although there is cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation is controllable, the valuation logic will continue, and the absolute price is expected to be mainly adjusted in a wide range. In the short term, the price center is expected to be range - bound, and future attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 3.2每日提示 - PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, the market trading focus shifted to May, mainly with traders negotiating. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were different transaction prices at different time points in May, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 + 19, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4490, and the 05 - contract basis was 28, with the futures price at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 4.39 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Expectation: PTA is expected to continue to reduce inventory, but the price is mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the crude oil market and terminal device changes [6]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the ethylene glycol price center was at a low level. Affected by the news of possible exemption of ethane tariffs, the night - session price opened lower and declined. The internal and external market transaction prices were in different ranges, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 4184, and the 09 - contract basis was 24, with the futures price at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region was 68.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 tons, showing a bullish situation [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Expectation: In the short term, the price center is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices [8]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant information provided. 3.4基本面数据 - Supply - Demand Balance Table - PTA: The table shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - MEG: The table shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Price Data - Spot Price: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on April 25 and April 24, 2025, are provided, along with their price changes [12]. - Futures Price: The futures prices of PTA and MEG contracts on April 25 and April 24, 2025, are provided, along with their price changes and basis data [12]. - Profit Data: The profit data of various products such as PTA, MEG, and polyester products on April 25, 2025, are provided, along with their profit changes [12]. - Inventory Data - PTA: The PTA factory inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are provided [41]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol port inventory data in the East China region from 2021 to 2025 are provided [42]. - Polyester Products: The inventory data of polyester products such as PET slices and polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 are provided [43][45]. - Operating Rate Data - Polyester Upstream: The operating rate data of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 are provided [52][54]. - Polyester Downstream: The operating rate data of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 are provided [56][58]. - Profit Data - PTA: The PTA processing fee data from 2022 to 2025 are provided [61]. - MEG: The profit data of different production methods of ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2025 are provided [63]. - Polyester Products: The profit data of polyester products such as polyester fibers from 2022 to 2025 are provided [65][67][68][69].