大越期货菜粕早报-20250428

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2600 and 2660. In the short - term, it will be affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil cake imports by China, and will oscillate upwards. With the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [9][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends and technical oscillations. The low opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up, and the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals has no short - term pressure on oil mill inventories. The market is oscillating and slightly stronger. The tariff increase on Canadian oil cake imports is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [10]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil cake imports, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: China's tariff increase on Canadian oil cake imports; low rapeseed meal inventory (0.99 tons this week, a 52.17% week - on - week decrease and a 64.64% year - on - year decrease); an increase in the main long positions [10]. - Short Factors: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price (basis - 84); the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [25][26]. - Prices and Spreads: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2600, and the basis is - 84, showing a discount to the futures. The spot price of rapeseed meal has increased following the futures, and the basis discount remains at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract rises and then falls [10][20][22]. - Inventory and Production: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased to a low level. The inventory of imported rapeseed in April is lower than expected, and the import cost has oscillated and increased. The inventory of oil mill rapeseed has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded from a low level [27][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [10].