大越期货甲醇周报-20250428

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the methanol market from April 21 - 25, provided by Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market continued its regional trend this week, with significant differences between ports and inland areas. Inland supply was tight initially but was later suppressed by port inflows and changing market sentiment. Port prices were influenced by macro - factors and fundamentals [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Comment - The inland methanol market initially rose due to pre - holiday stocking and supply tightness but later declined due to port inflows, high - price caution, and changing supply - demand expectations. The port market was affected by macro - news and fundamentals, with prices rising and then falling [5] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - In different regions, prices showed various trends. For example, Jiangsu had a 0.08% weekly increase, while Inner Mongolia had a 3.65% decrease [6] 2.2 Methanol Basis - The basis in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week. The spot price had a 0.08% increase, and the futures price had a 0.97% increase [8] 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 340 yuan/ton [10] 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationwide, the load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and in the northwest, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12] 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China decreased by 0.57% to 261 dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.88% to 339.5 dollars/ton, and the spread increased by 1.5 dollars/ton [15] 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 0.55%, and the import spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [18] 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - Formaldehyde and dimethyl ether prices remained unchanged, while acetic acid decreased by 2.48% [23] 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde profit increased by 11 yuan/ton, load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether profit increased by 36 yuan/ton, load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid profit decreased by 71 yuan/ton, load increased by 1.94% [24][26][31] 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO profit was negative, and the load decreased slightly [35] 2.10 Methanol Port Inventories - In the East China port, inventory decreased by 6.98, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.18 [36] 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 4.19%, and effective forecasts increased by 450.45% [40] 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises had maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance periods and losses [42] 3.2 Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., had different operation statuses, such as some in the process of restarting and some running normally [43] 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions had different operation statuses, with some running stably, some under maintenance, and some with planned future maintenance [44]