多空交织，豆粕冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - General Outlook: The market is currently focused on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are influenced by multiple factors, including the Sino - US tariff war, South American soybean production, domestic inventory, and demand [14][15]. - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, it maintains a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, it shows a slightly stronger oscillation pattern. The current situation is a result of the interaction between positive factors such as low domestic inventory and uncertain South American weather, and negative factors like the expected increase in imported soybeans in May and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [10]. - Soybeans: In the short - term, they also maintain a range - bound oscillation. The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, but the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production put pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The Sino - US tariff war has been implemented. US soybeans are fluctuating upwards. South American soybean production is affected by weather, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as import volume, inventory, and demand [13]. - The domestic imported soybean arrival volume is lower than expected in the short - term but will increase to a high level in May. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is at a low level, and the South American soybean production area still has weather uncertainties [14]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: Short - term lower - than - expected domestic imported soybean arrival volume, low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain South American soybean production area weather [14]. - Bearish Factors: The increase in domestic imported soybean arrival volume to a high level in May and the continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The Sino - US tariff war supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [15]. - Bearish Factors: The continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Weather: The weather in the South American soybean production area has improved in the short - term, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - Import Cost: The price of US soybeans is fluctuating upwards, and the import cost is expected to be slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - Oil Mill Pressing: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has increased from a low level. The demand is expected to continue to recover, but it may have a bearish impact in the future [9]. - Transaction: The downstream's enthusiasm for forward stocking has increased, but the transaction is expected to decline after the May Day holiday, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - Oil Mill Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has dropped to a low level compared to the same period in history, but it is expected to increase from a low level in the future, with a bearish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.6 Market Structure of Meal Products - Soybean Meal Futures: It has risen and then fallen. The spot price is relatively strong before May Day, and the premium remains at a high level [62]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread: It has fluctuated slightly, and the spread of the 2509 contract has risen and then fallen [64]. 3.7 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The price has risen and then fallen. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD have entered an adjustment phase, and the short - term trend will wait for new guidance [69]. - The overall trend is still affected by the interaction between US soybeans and imported soybean arrivals, as well as factors such as domestic new - season soybean planting expectations and oil mill pressing [69]. Soybean Meal - It has risen and then fallen this week. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD have entered a consolidation phase, and the short - term trend will wait for the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand pattern [72]. 3.8 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is returning to a range - bound oscillation. The M2509 contract will oscillate between 2900 and 3100 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2507 contract will oscillate between 4100 and 4300, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20].