摩根士丹利：科技硬件-不确定性增加-关税影响情境分析

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the Greater China technology hardware sector [6]. Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on electronic products has increased, leading to various risks in the technology hardware supply chain. The risk-reward profile remains unattractive even after recent stock adjustments [1][3]. - A scenario analysis indicates a significant downward revision risk for earnings forecasts in 2025-26, with an average earnings forecast decline of 17-18% [3][16]. - Consumer electronics are expected to be the most affected, particularly companies heavily reliant on consumer technology, facing greater profit pressure and rising end-product prices [3][8]. - The diversification of production capacity is necessary but may come at a high cost, with potential increases in overall production costs by at least 50% [4][21]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The report outlines three scenarios regarding tariff impacts, assessing their effects on earnings based on product price increases and shipment volumes. The base case suggests a 10% average tariff on electronic products, leading to a 5% year-over-year price hike [15]. - The analysis shows that the technology hardware sector may experience a downturn lasting at least four quarters, with recovery in shipment volumes not expected until Q3 2026 [3][16]. Company-Specific Impacts - The report highlights that no technology hardware company is immune to the impacts of U.S. tariffs, with significant adjustments made to earnings forecasts for several companies, particularly within the Apple supply chain [25][27]. - Specific companies such as Hon Hai and Luxshare are rated as "Overweight," while others like Goertek and Lingyi are rated "Underweight" due to their exposure to tariff-related cost increases and demand slowdowns [25][27]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for consumer electronics, with expected earnings growth of only 8% for the Apple supply chain and 16% for personal computers in the current year [17]. - In contrast, the data center infrastructure segment is projected to benefit from steady AI demand, with earnings growth expected to be 26% in 2025 and 13% in 2026 [17][31].