瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some US farmers are increasing corn planting area. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell. The supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions is also decreasing, while the deep - processing industry's demand is rising. The drought in the wheat - producing areas indirectly boosts the corn price. The planting area of new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to remain stable. The recent corn futures price has increased, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率 of corn starch enterprises, and a decrease in supply pressure. However, the downstream demand is poor, and the industry inventory remains high. The recent starch futures price has increased with the corn price, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of 25 - corn starch futures is 2361 yuan/ton, and that of 27 - corn starch futures is 2721 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase. The 9 - 1 corn monthly spread is 85 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 corn starch monthly spread is - 79 yuan/ton with a 16 - yuan decrease. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 95602 hands and 1473106 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 46511 hands and - 189933 hands respectively. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 32318 hands and 112229 hands respectively. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 420 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 484 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1707988 contracts with a decrease of 16007 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 219843 contracts with a decrease of 14339 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2292.55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively. The import CIF price of corn is 2210.55 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 68.45 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 131 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 377.63 million hectares, 33.55 million hectares, 50 million hectares, 294.92 million hectares, and 26.8 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 126 million tons, 22.3 million tons, 6.4 million tons, 44.74 million tons, and 0.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports is 162 tons with a 2.5 - ton decrease, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 558.8 tons with a 29.9 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 526 tons with a 4 - ton decrease. The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons with a 0.93 - ton decrease. The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons with a 66.4 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.74 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 125.48 tons with a 0.95 - ton decrease. The alcohol enterprise's startup rate is 48.96% with a 4.89% decrease, and the starch enterprise's startup rate is 58.37% with a 4.43% increase [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.18% with a 0.65% increase, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.9% with a 0.28% increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 10.05% and 10.06% respectively [2]. Industry News - The 2025 US corn planting season has begun. Due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some farmers are increasing corn planting area. As of April 24, Ukraine has sown 200.1 million hectares of spring grains, accounting for 35% of the planned area [2].