天然气市场报告，Q22025（英）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the gas market, with global gas demand growth expected to slow to approximately 1.5% by 2025 [6][29][49]. Core Insights - Global gas demand is projected to recover structurally in 2024 after supply shocks in 2022/23, with significant growth driven primarily by Europe and North America due to colder weather conditions [11][12]. - The report highlights the increasing complexity of gas supply security amid geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for responsible producers and consumers to collaborate on ensuring reliable gas supply [8][13]. - The emergence of low-carbon gas trade is noted as a critical area for future development, requiring international cooperation and robust policy support [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Update - Global gas demand is expected to expand by 1.8% in the 2024/25 heating season, primarily led by Europe and North America, while Asian demand growth is slowing [12][25]. - European gas consumption is projected to increase by nearly 10% due to a decline in renewable energy generation, highlighting the role of gas-fired power plants in ensuring energy supply stability [12][27]. - North America's gas consumption is anticipated to reach historical highs, driven by colder winter temperatures and increased residential and commercial usage [37][38]. Low-Emission Gas - The report discusses the rise of low-emission gas trade, with Japan importing bio-LNG and Ukraine exporting pipeline biomethane to the EU [18][19]. - The development of low-carbon gas trade is seen as essential for reducing carbon emissions in the gas supply chain and broader energy systems [18]. Regional Demand Trends - In Europe, LNG imports are expected to rebound in 2025, increasing by 25% to nearly historical highs after a significant drop in 2024 [16][29]. - Asian LNG imports are projected to decline due to fierce competition for flexible LNG cargoes, with China's imports expected to drop significantly [19][49]. - The report notes that gas demand in the Eurasian region is expected to decrease by about 3% due to milder winter conditions in Russia [28]. Supply Dynamics - Global LNG supply is forecasted to grow by 5% in 2025, with North America expected to account for approximately 85% of this increase [15][29]. - The report highlights that the tightening supply fundamentals will exert upward pressure on gas prices, particularly in the context of reduced Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU [12][29].