贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250428

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - Price Influencing Factors: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - Macro: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - Fundamentals: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - Price Data: - Futures:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - Spot: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - Inventory: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - Cost: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - Demand: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - Price Data:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - Aluminum: - Macro: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - Fundamentals: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - Price Data:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - Alumina: - Supply: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - Demand: Little change in demand [46] - Inventory: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - Supply: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - Product Trends: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - Price Data:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - Supply: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - Demand: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - Price Data:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - Supply: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - Demand: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - Price Data:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - Supply: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - Price Data:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]