甲醇日报-20250429

Report Information - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Data Sources: Wind, Wenhua Finance, and Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [5][10] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the "Spring Inspection", the resumption of domestic methanol plants and the full restart of Iranian methanol plants will lead to a gradual inventory accumulation trend in inland and port areas. Traditional and MTO demands face a decline due to poor profits and seasonality. Considering the weak cost - end and high macro uncertainties, methanol is expected to oscillate in the short and medium term [5]. - Technically, both the hourly and daily MACD indicators of the methanol weighted contract show a continuous sideways oscillation trend, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: The methanol weighted contract increased in positions and rebounded. The weighted contract added 2006 positions, and the 09 main contract added 17344 positions. The weighted contract showed a narrow - range oscillation during the day, closing with a small - bodied positive line with short upper and lower shadows, rising 0.82%. Different contracts had different price changes, with MA2501 rising 0.72%, MA2505 rising 0.80%, and MA2509 rising 0.96% [5][7]. - Spot Market: The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. 2. Industry News - Abbas Port Explosion: An explosion occurred at Iran's Abbas Port, where over 55% of Iran's non - petroleum goods import and export volume is handled. However, most Iranian methanol is shipped from Assalueh and BIk ports, and currently, most berths are operating normally. The impact on Iranian methanol shipments needs to be closely monitored [5]. - Project News: Meijin Group's 300,000 - ton green methanol integrated project worth 10.98 billion yuan landed in Ningxia. China, as the world's largest methanol producer and user with 60% of global capacity, has over 90 green and low - carbon methanol projects as of August 2024, with a planned production capacity exceeding 24 million tons/year and showing a high - growth trend [13]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, basis of the main contract, price differences between production and sales areas, price differences between MA05 and MA09, profits of three methanol production processes, and overseas market prices of methanol [14][19][21].