Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the strong basis provides some support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as new capacity releases, tariff impacts on demand, and the end of the agricultural film peak season [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official and Caixin PMIs in March showed good performance. OPEC+ may increase production later, and crude oil has rebounded. The Iran port explosion had limited impact. New capacity is expected to be released in June, and the overall demand has declined after the end of the agricultural film peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7420 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 256, with a premium ratio of 3.6%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.9 tons (+2.8), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to the end of the agricultural film peak season, new capacity releases, and relatively high inventory [4] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the PMIs in March were good. OPEC+ may increase production, and crude oil has rebounded. The anti - countermeasures will increase the cost of imported propane. The current PP delivery spot price is 7350 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 238, with a premium ratio of 3.3%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to rigid demand and neutral inventory [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250429
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-29 01:58