焦煤焦炭早报（2025-4-29）-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 焦煤: The report expects the short - term coking coal price to be weakly stable. Although the demand for raw materials from downstream enterprises remains due to high hot metal production, the current steel - coking game is obvious. Enterprises mainly consume inventory, purchase on a just - in - time basis, and are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - 焦炭: The report anticipates that the short - term coke price will remain stable. Coke production is increasing steadily, and the pre - holiday inventory demand of downstream steel mills has been released, but the macro - expectation is average, and the steel market fluctuates, so the market sentiment is still cautious [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - 焦煤: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, and the total sample inventory has decreased, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is negative. Overall, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2]. - 焦炭: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the total sample inventory has increased, which is negative. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The price is expected to remain stable [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - 焦煤: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - 焦炭: Positive factors are the increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate. Negative factors are the squeezed profit margins of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Prices - 焦煤: On April 28, 2025, the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia are provided, with most prices showing no change [8]. - 焦炭: On April 28, 2025, the port prices of metallurgical coke from different ports and regions are presented, with no price changes [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [26]. Other Indicators - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].