大越期货PVC期货早报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are neutral. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week. The current demand is close to the historical average, but overall domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the cost is generally rising. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4951 - 5027. [6][9] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. [11] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [6] - Demand Side: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.069 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 39.9%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 49.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.620 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 69.44%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average. [6] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2232.95 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [8] - Basis: On April 28, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. [9] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 420,201 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 327,641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 92,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.48%. The social inventory was 420,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.71%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, which is bearish. [9] - Market Trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral. [9] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, production, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC, as well as their changes compared to the previous period. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trends of PVC basis, spot prices in East China, and the closing prices of the main contract from January 4, 2022, to April 26, 2025. [18] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report presents the historical trends of price spreads (such as 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread) of the PVC main contract from January 2, 2024, to December 30, 2024, and from January 2, 2025, to April 28, 2025. [24] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material prices, cost - profit,开工率, weekly inventory, and daily production from 2022 to 2025. [27] - Calcium Carbide: It shows the historical trends of the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, cost - profit in Wuhai,开工率, maintenance loss, and production from 2019 to 2025. [30] - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and monthly production from 2019 to 2025. [32] - Caustic Soda: It shows the historical trends of the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of sample enterprises, and flake caustic soda inventory from 2019 to 2025. [34][37] 3.6 PVC Fundamentals - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises from 2018 to 2025. [38][40] 3.7 PVC Fundamentals - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, profile开工率, pipe开工率, film开工率, paste resin开工率, paste resin gross profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [43][46][48][51] - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year from 2019 to 2025. [54][57] 3.8 PVC Fundamentals - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 to 2025. [59] 3.9 PVC Fundamentals - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025. [61] 3.10 PVC Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports. [64]