大越期货菜粕早报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2590 and 2650 [9]. - In the short term, rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes imposed by China, leading to an upward oscillation. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain a slightly bullish oscillating pattern [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2590 and 2650 [9]. - The fundamental factors show a mixed picture. The low开机 rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market, while the import of rapeseed and the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed import bring uncertainties [10]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture market is emerging from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising [12]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed import is still ongoing [12]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [12]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the geopolitical conflict may still rise, providing support for commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, low rapeseed meal inventory (0.97 million tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease and a 64.07% year - on - year decrease), and the decrease in主力 long positions and capital outflow [10]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March, the basis being at a discount (spot 2560, basis - 81), and the price being below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. 4. Fundamental Data - The basis of rapeseed meal is - 81, indicating a discount to the futures [10]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.97 million tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease and a 64.07% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The import of rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost has oscillated upwards [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has dropped to a low level [29]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has rebounded from a low level [31]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The主力 long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, and capital has flowed out [10]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - The spot price of rapeseed meal has followed the futures price rebound, and the basis discount has remained at a relatively high level [20]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has risen and then fallen [22]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts increased from 1000 to 2000 on April 28 [17].