摩根士丹利：投资者报告-政治局因关税冲击调整政策

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Politburo has pledged to coordinate domestic policy and implement existing policies more aggressively, including faster issuance of government bonds and potential cuts to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [3] - Real GDP growth is projected to soften, with 2Q real GDP tracking at less than 4.5% year-on-year [4] - Persistent deflationary pressures are noted, with a significant decline in container throughput to the US due to tariffs [7][8] - Household sentiment regarding consumption is weakening, driven by concerns over job security and salary amidst US tariff hikes [12] - The property market sentiment has cooled, with increased expectations of price declines and a rise in eager sellers [16] Policy Measures - The report outlines specific measures such as unemployment insurance rebates to exporters, a new relending facility for service consumption, and increased funding support for consumer trade-in programs [3] - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion is expected in the second half of 2025, alongside enhanced infrastructure and tech investment support [40] - The government is expected to implement a consumption-focused fiscal package of RMB 10 trillion over the next two years [49] Economic Indicators - The report indicates that 36% of the 2025 government bond quota has been utilized, compared to an average of 20% in the past five years [44] - Local government special refinancing bond net issuance is reported at RMB 1.5 trillion out of a total of RMB 2 trillion for local government debt swaps [47] - The US weighted average tariffs on China's exports are projected to remain high, with trade-weighted tariff hikes reduced to 34% with exemptions [22][24]