《有色》日报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Supply side is gradually being repaired, but demand outlook is pessimistic. Maintain a bearish stance on tin price rebounds and focus on the pace of supply - side repair [1]. Zinc - In the short - term, pay attention to the TC increase and refined zinc expansion speed. In the long - term, adopt a short - selling strategy. The main price range is expected to be between 21,500 - 23,500 [3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term price may fluctuate. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term price is under pressure near 20,000 yuan/ton, and may face downward pressure as it enters the off - season [5]. Copper - Copper fundamentals present a "strong reality + weak expectation" combination, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Focus on macro - driving signals, with the main pressure level at 77,000 - 78,000 [6]. Nickel - Macro situation is temporarily stable, but there is still uncertainty. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [8]. Stainless Steel - The price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the game between cost and demand. The main operating range is 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is bearish, with the price expected to remain weak. The main reference range is 65,000 - 70,000 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 260,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% [1]. - SMM 1 tin premium dropped by 20% to 800 yuan/ton [1]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss increased to 10,657.77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.57% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 71.43% to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons [1]. - SMM refined tin March output increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons [1]. Inventory - SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 3.36% to 9,249 tons [1]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% [3]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - March refined zinc output increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons [3]. Inventory - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 7.63% to 8.59 million tons [3]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% [5]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 197 yuan/ton [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - March alumina output increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons [5]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.46% to 64.30 million tons [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 77,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% [6]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss decreased to 355 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - March electrolytic copper output increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons [6]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.07% to 15.51 million tons [6]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 125,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [8]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Futures import loss increased to 4,178 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [8]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons [8]. - SHFE inventory decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons [8]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [10]. Raw Material Price - 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 0.15% to 668 yuan/nickel point [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons [10]. Inventory - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.53% to 54.42 million tons [10]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 68,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [12]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 160 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - March lithium carbonate output increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons [12]. Inventory - March lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons [12].