广发期货《黑色》日报-20250429

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views - Steel: Last Friday, there was news of a 50 million - ton production cut in 2025. Steel prices strengthened on Friday night and continued the slightly stronger trend on Monday. Raw materials weakened and the disk profit expanded. The apparent demand has peaked and there is an expectation of weakening in the far - end demand. Inventory has fallen to a seasonal low while production remains high. If the demand declines month - on - month, the near - end prices are expected to catch up with the decline. Steel mills need to reduce production to match the demand. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials in the second - nearest month [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by the production restriction news, iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure. The daily average pig iron output has increased significantly this week, and it is expected to peak. Whether it can remain at a high level depends on the end - demand. The supply of iron ore has a slight increase in global shipments and a significant decline in arrivals. The port inventory has increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. - Coke: The coke futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The second - round spot price increase of coking plants was blocked. Due to the concession of coking coal, the losses of coking enterprises have been repaired, and some have resumed production slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased with the increase in pig iron output. However, there is a possibility that pig iron output will peak. The inventory is at a medium - high level with some pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The spot market is generally stable but weak. The domestic coal mines continue to resume production, and the port clearance has declined. The demand from the coking industry has increased slightly. The total inventory has decreased slightly. There is still a large impact from imported coal, and the market is expected to decline. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage and adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [7]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated narrowly. After the production cut, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the overall downward space is limited. The production has continued to decline, and the inventory has stopped increasing and started to decrease, but it remains at a medium - high level. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, but the factory inventory is high, and the price lacks the impetus to rebound. It is expected to fluctuate steadily [8]. - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures continued to decline. The production reduction has remained stable. The losses of manufacturers in Ningxia have deepened, and most manufacturers are still reducing production. The inventory has increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support from manganese ore is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Prices and Spreads: The prices of some steel products have changed, such as the spot price of rebar in the South China region decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the 05 contract of rebar increased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the output of five major steel products increased by 3.1 to 875.8 (0.4% increase) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 50.4 to 1534.3 (- 3.2% decrease), and the rebar inventory decreased by 30.8 to 702.3 (- 4.2% decrease) [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building material trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 12.0 (- 0.7% decrease), and the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 926.3 (- 2.4% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties has changed, such as the PB powder increased by 3.3 to 809.6 (0.4% increase) [4]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 200.2 to 2325.3 (- 7.9% decrease), and the global shipment volume increased by 17.8 to 2925.5 (0.6% increase) [4]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 18.4 to 327.9 (5.9% increase) [4]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 79.6 to 14261.0 (0.6% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 to 9073.0 (0.2% increase) [4]. Coke - Prices and Spreads: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1318, and the 05 contract of coke increased by 4 to 1566 (0.2% increase) [7]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase) [7]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 3.0 to 1014.8 (- 0.3% decrease), and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.4 to 104.9 (- 2.2% decrease) [7]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 4.0 (- 11.5% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1145, and the 05 contract of coking coal decreased by 9 to 881 (- 1.0% decrease) [7]. - Supply: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.7 to 878.2 (- 0.5% decrease) [7]. - Demand: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of upstream mines increasing and the port inventory decreasing [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract increased by 8 to 5648 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5550 [8]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 16.2 to 5750.1 (- 0.3% decrease), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 to 620 (1.6% increase) [8]. - Production: The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon decreased by 0.1 to 9.9 (- 1.4% decrease), and the operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises decreased by 1.5 to 30.9 (- 4.6% decrease) [8]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon (calculated by Steel Union) remained unchanged at 21 [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 8.4 (- 11.8% decrease) [8]. Silicon Manganese - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 8 to 5804 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 to 5680 (- 0.4% decrease) [8]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 12 to 5681 (0.2% increase) [8]. - Supply: The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 0.7 to 78.8 (0.9% increase), and the arrival volume increased by 33.6 to 65.3 (106.3% increase) [8]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.0 to 127 (0.3% increase) [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.4 to 18.2 (15.4% increase) [8].