《农产品》日报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over production growth, it fell below 4,000 ringgit and is expected to test the support at 3,500 ringgit in the long - term. In China, Dalian palm oil futures adjusted downward, with short - term support expected around 8,000 - 8,100 yuan. It's advisable to take profits before the May Day holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: The USDA monthly report lowered the US soybean oil's ending inventory, but the positive news has been reflected in the price. US biodiesel consumption has slowed down. In China, spot prices mostly fell, with some regions rising due to higher basis quotes. Factory supply is tight, and inventory is low, keeping spot quotes strong in the short - term [1]. Meal - The US soybean market is in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation yet and continuous demand concerns. Brazil's supply pressure is being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. Short - term domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, with low oil mill operation rates and falling inventories. The basis has been rising, but the market's willingness to buy at high prices is limited. In May, the basis is expected to decline. Wait for the market to stabilize before considering long - term long positions [3]. Live Pigs - The previous entry of second - fattening pigs pushed up prices, but terminal follow - up is difficult. Recently, second - fattening transactions have declined, and pig prices have fallen. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Pay attention to second - fattening pig sales around May Day [5]. Corn - The market has strong bullish sentiment, and spot prices are rising. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost gone, and traders in the Northeast are strongly holding prices. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, but high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and recovering demand will support corn prices, but new - season wheat substitution may cause short - term corrections. Be cautious when chasing up prices [7]. White Sugar - Brazil's new sugar - crushing season is starting, and Thailand's production is expected to increase. The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The issuance of import licenses and import volume will dominate the market. Domestic supply and demand are loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are mainly affected by macro factors. Pay attention to the development of the US - initiated tariff war. If tariffs are reduced in the short - term, it will be positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative in the medium - term. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventories are slightly accumulating, but the pressure is not large. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate. Keep an eye on macro trends [11]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, and demand is decreasing. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - Soybean Oil: On April 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,370 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.76%) from April 25. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,866 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 128 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,035 [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on April 28 was 9,080 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.63%) from April 25. The futures price of P2509 was 8,566 yuan, down 1.70%. The basis was 514 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on April 28 was 9,400 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.57%) from April 25. The futures price of O1509 was 9,305 yuan, down 1.65%. The basis was 95 yuan, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 1,634 to 1,357 [1]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,500 yuan, down 300 yuan (- 7.89%) from the previous value. The futures price of M2509 was 2,985 yuan, down 1.52%. The basis was 515 yuan, down 33.03%. The warehouse receipts were 10,600, unchanged [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 2.27%) from the previous value. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,641 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 61 yuan, down 38.64%. The warehouse receipts increased from 1,000 to 2,000 [3]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,950 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,225 yuan, down 0.28%. The basis was - 275 yuan, up 4.18%. The warehouse receipts increased by 13.37% to 10,981 [3]. Live Pigs - Futures: The main contract price was 790 yuan/ton, up 2.60%. The price of the live - pig 2507 contract was 13,485 yuan, down 0.41%; the 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan, down 0.14%. The 7 - 9 spread was 645 yuan, up 5.74%. The main - contract positions increased by 1.48% to 73,369, and the warehouse receipts were 705 [5]. - Spot: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions remained unchanged. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.56% to 147,162 heads. The weekly white - strip price dropped by 100.00% to 0.00 yuan, the weekly piglet price dropped by 3.79% to 26.94 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.51 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.29% to 128.94 kg, and the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 26.05% to 100 yuan [5]. Corn - Corn: The price of the corn 2507 contract was 2,361 yuan, up 1.07%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,270 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was - 91 yuan, down 19.74%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan, unchanged. The positions increased by 3.12% to 2,305,598, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.44% to 112,229 [7]. - Corn Starch: The price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,721 yuan, up 0.44%. The Changchun spot price was 2,590 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,760 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 131 yuan, down 10.08%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 79 yuan, down 25.40%. The positions increased by 4.13% to 353,656, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,450 [7]. White Sugar - Futures: The price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,189 yuan, up 0.23%; the 2509 contract was 5,977 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.83 cents/lb, down 1.82%. The 5 - 9 spread was 212 yuan, up 5.47%. The positions increased by 1.69% to 338,467 hands, the warehouse receipts were 28,756, unchanged, and the valid forecasts increased by 12.37% to 3,270 [9]. - Spot: The Nanning spot price was 6,220 yuan, up 0.16%; the Kunming spot price was 6,070 yuan, up 1.17%. The Nanning basis was 31 yuan, down 11.43%; the Kunming basis was - 119 yuan, up 32.00% [9]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the cotton 2505 contract was 12,675 yuan, down 0.39%; the 2509 contract was 12,950 yuan, down 0.31%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.56 cents/lb, down 1.66%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 275 yuan, down 3.77%. The positions decreased by 0.30% to 570,462 hands, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.72% to 10,479, and the valid forecasts increased by 1.14% to 1,960 [11]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 13,998 yuan, unchanged; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,244 yuan, up 0.07%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,956 yuan, down 0.56%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1,323 yuan, up 3.93%; the 3128B - 05 contract basis was 1,048 yuan, up 3.97%; the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% was 288 yuan, up 44.00% [11]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,812 yuan/500KG, down 0.16%; the 05 contract was 3,133 yuan/500KG, down 0.98%. The 9 - 5 spread was 679 yuan, up 3.82%. The basis was 315 yuan, down 9.92% [14]. - Related Prices: The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.25 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled - chicken price was 5.19 yuan/jin, up 2.77%; the egg - to - feed ratio was 2.69, up 1.51%; the breeding profit was - 6.03 yuan/feather, up 29.39% [14].