瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of generally positive macro - conditions this year, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may enter a stage where the supply growth rate slows slightly, demand is steadily boosted, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 77,600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,438 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 164,818 lots, down 249 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 5,315 lots, up 5,841 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,035 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,125 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 113 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 96 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 435 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 28.6 dollars/ton, up 12.19 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.39 million tons, up 21.1 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.52 dollars/thousand tons, down 7.81 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 67,760 yuan/metal ton, down 680 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 68,460 yuan/metal ton, down 680 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 124.8 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 470,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 54,690 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,200 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The output of copper products is 212.52 million tons, down 14.76 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956 billion yuan, up 519.8 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 19,904.17 billion yuan, up 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 32.16%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.57%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 17.64%, up 0.0034%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.84, down 0.0236 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will step up efforts to implement established policies, including boosting consumption and utilizing 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. The central bank will prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy and promote high - quality development, covering employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, investment expansion and environment improvement [2]. 3.8 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Due to raw material supply shortages and smelter maintenance plans, the growth of domestic smelter production capacity may slow slightly, and the increase in domestic refined copper supply may also slow due to high tariffs. Demand: Affected by domestic demand expansion policies, the downstream copper product production is expected to remain at a relatively high level [2]. 3.9 Inventory Situation - The inflection point of domestic refined copper social inventory has been confirmed, and with the steady increase in downstream production, rapid inventory reduction has occurred [2].