瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is de-stocking, but the de-stocking amplitude has narrowed compared to the previous period. The arrival of ships at Qingdao Port has increased significantly, while downstream factories have basically completed their inventory preparations, and some warehouses have experienced a trend of inventory accumulation due to lower-than-expected提货. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. The overall sales performance of semi-steel tire enterprises was weak, with increased production and sales pressure, and some enterprises reduced their production. An individual all-steel tire enterprise carried out scheduled maintenance, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some small-scale enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales, while enterprises with large production volumes continued to see an increase in inventory due to slower sales. It is recommended to trade the ru2509 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,950 and the nr2506 contract in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,440 lots to 132,605 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 1,074 lots to 55,934 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 25,225 lots, a decrease of 557 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 4,782 lots, an increase of 467 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 10 tons to 200,810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 2,016 tons to 68,948 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 450 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 67.79 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.7 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.67 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 58 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 216,100 tons, an increase of 66,900 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 281,600 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.46%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.11%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 42.73 days, an increase of 0.37 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.6 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 35.07%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.72%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.73%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.73%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.36%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points month - on - month and 8.38 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a decrease of 1.65 percentage points month - on - month and 3.84 percentage points year - on - year. As of April 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 608,700 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.62%. The bonded area inventory was 81,500 tons, an increase of 1.11%; the general trade inventory was 527,200 tons, a decrease of 0.88%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.05 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 1.78 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.17 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1 percentage point. The natural rubber production areas around the world are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the early stage of tapping in Yunnan, the supply of raw materials is slow, and the raw materials are not concentrated yet. The competition for raw materials in the region is fierce, and the purchase price continues to be adjusted upwards. In Hainan, it is also in the early stage of tapping, and affected by powdery mildew and drought in some areas such as Danzhou and Baisha, the supply of fresh latex is slow [2]