瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The A2509 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2278 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 77 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 654,944 lots, down 24,961 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65,414 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 6,934, down 172 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it's 2170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the East - Northwest price spread is 250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 142 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 269 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 264 euros/ton, down 6 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 71 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.18 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.22 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 33.8 tons, down 9.23 tons; in South China ports, it's 12.52 tons, down 3.01 tons; the import profit is 86.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 302,700 tons, up 28,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 85.06%, down 2.31% [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 49.78%, down 2.74%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.36%, up 0.75%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.82%, up 1.47%; the MTBE operating rate is 65.01%, down 2.18%; the olefin operating rate is 82.81%, down 1.09%; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 542 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 27.72%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.11%, up 0.12%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.55%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.55%, up 0.89% [2]. Industry News - As of April 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons (0.82%); the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons (10.30%); the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 46.32 tons, down 12.24 tons; as of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 82.81%, down 1.09% [2].