异动点评：欧线航司报价持续下跌，盘面情绪低迷

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand is poor, with low booking volumes and prices under pressure. The supply - demand situation has further declined due to some capacity being transferred from the American routes to the European routes in late May because of the Sino - US tariff war. The resistance for airlines to further lower prices is high, and the space for continued short - selling is limited. It is not recommended to go long at the current position due to high risks. Instead, it is advisable to take a long position through the monthly spread and try to widen the spread between the August and June contracts [3][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Yesterday's Market - The EC main contract opened 1300 points lower and closed at 1275.6 points, with a decline of 7.83% [1] Trading Logic - Maersk continued to reduce prices for May after the market closed yesterday, with the lowest price for large containers falling below $1500/TEU, corresponding to a price of less than 1000 points on the futures market. As it is approaching early May and there are still no signs of a peak season in the spot supply - demand, the previous peak - season expectations in the market have gradually shattered, and prices are gradually returning to the spot fundamentals. The current spot quotes, except for CMA, are generally concentrated between $1500 - 2100/TEU for large containers, corresponding to a futures market range of 1000 - 1400 points, and the futures prices have fallen to the flat - water range [3] Fundamental Analysis - As of April 25th, the latest quotes were as follows: Maersk $874 - 1264/TEU, $1458 - 2008/TEU; CMA $1285 - 2335/TEU, $2145 - 4245/TEU; MSC $1260 - 1562/TEU, $2110/TEU; ONE $1391 - 1841/TEU, $1837/TEU; EMC $1155 - 1255/TEU, $1910 - 2060/TEU. As of April 28th, the global total container shipping capacity was 32.19 million TEU, a 9% increase compared to the same period last year. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's composite PMI in March was 50.9, the manufacturing PMI was 48.6, and the service PMI was 51. The US manufacturing PMI index in March was 49, and the new orders index was 45.2, showing a sharp decline. The OECD leading index for the G7 group in March was 100.47 [4] - The current demand at the spot end is still weak. Although the tariff policy has been postponed, the general 10% tariff still has a certain impact on trade demand. Seasonally, April is the turning point between the off - season and the peak season, and demand will gradually pick up from May. The prices in March and April are the traditional seasonal lows. On the supply side, MSC suspended a large ship in late April, and the supply decreased compared to the early part of the month. However, considering that the demand side still shows no improvement, it is expected that this suspension will not have a significant impact on prices [5] Future Outlook - The spot prices have fallen to a relatively low level. Currently, both the spot price and the SCFIS index are near historical lows. It is expected that the prices will face significant resistance when they fall to around 1000 points. If the airlines announce price increases as the peak season approaches, the prices may quickly rebound to over 2000 points, with a preliminary calculation of the profit - loss ratio at about 1:3. It is recommended to take a long position through the monthly spread and try to widen the spread between the August and June contracts [8]