Industry Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean has strong support at the bottom due to ongoing trade negotiations between various countries and the US, with many countries expected to purchase US agricultural products. The planting area of new-season US soybeans has decreased significantly, and weather conditions will have a greater impact on the market in the future. [6] - In the domestic soybean meal market, the spot and futures markets deviated last week. The shortage and price increase in North and Northeast China spread across the country, but the spot market has cooled down recently. The high basis indicates that the market expects the future spot shortage to ease significantly. After May, a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports and clear customs, which is reflected in the supply increase on the futures market. [6] - Contracts 09, 11, and 01 have relatively more potential positive factors, including the increase in import costs after the Brazilian selling pressure eases, the US weather window, and tariff issues. However, investors may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: The prices of soybean meal contracts 2505, 2507, and 2509 all declined. The trading volume of contract 2509 was the largest, and its position decreased. The US soybean 05 contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1055 cents. After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, US soybeans rebounded and then entered a narrow range. [6] - Operation suggestions: Contracts 09 and subsequent ones have relatively more potential positive factors, but investors need to withstand the supply pressure in the second quarter. [6] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending April 27, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 18%, higher than the market expectation of 17%, and higher than the previous week's 8%, last year's 17%, and the five-year average of 12%. [7] 3. Data Overview - As of April 26, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 94.8%, higher than last week's 92.5%, last year's 90.5%, and the five-year average of 93.5%. [18] - In the first four weeks of April, Brazil exported 12,954,887.78 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 762,052.22 tons, a 14% increase compared to the average daily export volume in April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 14,687,842.09 tons. [18]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250430
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-29 23:30