甲醇日报-20250430

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Methanol Daily Report [1] Group 2: Research Analysts - Li Jin (Methanol), contact: 021 - 60635730, lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3015157 [3] - Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), contact: 021 - 60635737, renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3037892 [3] - Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), contact: 028 - 8663 0631, penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3065843 [3] - Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), contact: 021 - 60635740, pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3075681 [3] - Liu Youran (Pulp), contact: 021 - 60635570, liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F03094925 [3] - Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil), contact: 021 - 60635738, lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3031215 [3] - Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash), contact: 021 - 60635727, fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F3134307 [3][4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - MA2501: Open price 2370, closing price 2341, highest price 2370, lowest price 2326, decline 1.22%, trading volume 18479, open interest 112473, open interest change +4606, speculation degree 0.16 [6] - MA2505: Open price 2382, closing price 2355, highest price 2385, lowest price 2340, decline 1.42%, trading volume 40997, open interest 31068, open interest change -24918, speculation degree 1.32 [6] - MA2509: Open price 2310, closing price 2278, highest price 2310, lowest price 2265, decline 1.39%, trading volume 579850, open interest 654944, open interest change -24961, speculation degree 0.89 [6] - Methanol weighted contract: Reduced positions and declined, with a reduction of 45672 lots, the 09 main contract reduced 24961 lots, showing a volatile downward trend during the day, and finally closed with a small - bodied negative line with a short lower shadow, overall decline of 1.42% [6] Group 4: Spot Market - The average spot trading price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang today is 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook - Domestic methanol plant restarts are numerous, and the start - up is expected to recover. Affected by weather, loading and unloading are slow. Iran's Kaveh reduced its load, and the explosion at the Iranian port had little impact on methanol. Short - term arrivals in China are still low, but the long - term import expectation is rising. Pucheng Clean restarted, and attention should be paid to the May shutdown plans of Hengtong, etc. The traditional downstream is mostly in the off - season in the second quarter [7] - On one hand, the import expectation rises, the forward price drops, and important olefin plants are under maintenance. On the other hand, there is pre - holiday replenishment in the inland, and the coastal area flows back to the inland, and the inventory continues to decline. In the short term, the coastal area is under pressure while the inland provides support, and the futures price fluctuates. In the medium term, as the expectations of increased imports are gradually fulfilled, the supply - demand situation may turn loose. The short - and medium - term market is still expected to fluctuate [7] - Technically, in the hourly line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are running above the zero axis. After the red bars become shorter, green bars appear and continue to lengthen, showing a continuous sideways and volatile trend; in the daily line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, and the red bars start to shorten, also showing a continuous sideways and volatile trend. The short - term overall market is expected to fluctuate [7] Group 6: Industry News - Three green hydrogen - to - green methanol projects were signed. Zhongke Yitan Energy Technology (Dalian) Co., Ltd. signed a wind - solar - hydrogen - methanol integration project with Wusu City, with a total investment of 3.15 billion yuan, planning to build a hydrogen production line with an annual output of 40,200 tons and a green methanol production line with an annual output of 500,000 tons [12] - Zhongke New Energy Investment (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. signed a 3GW wind - solar power generation - to - hydrogen and hydrogen - to - methanol project with Shawan City, with an investment of 14.3 billion yuan, planning to build a 3GW wind - solar power generation project, a 100,000 - ton electrolytic water hydrogen production project, and a 500,000 - ton hydrogen - to - green methanol project [12] - China Energy Construction Investment Corporation Southwest Company signed a cooperation agreement on the 30,000 - ton/year wind - solar hydrogen production integration and 300,000 - ton/year green methanol project with the Management Committee of Hulunbuir Economic and Technological Development Zone. The project is located in Hailar Economic Development Zone, Hulunbuir City, with a total investment of about 7.2 billion yuan, including a wind - solar hydrogen production integration project with a planned installed capacity of 840MW and a 300,000 - ton/year green methanol project [12]