建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250430

Report Basic Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37 | 44163 | -426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | -14 | -0.19 | 23834 | -8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22 | 482064 | -10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27 | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04 | 19227 | -4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14 | 397139 | -9623 | [5] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Lianplastic L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7122 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.6%), with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and an open interest increase of 8592 to 490,656 lots. PP main contract 09 closed at 7092 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan, a decline of 0.27%, with an open interest increase of 4289 to 401,400 lots. The incident at Iranian ports caused supply disruptions. China's import dependence on Iranian polyethylene is about 3.3% and has been decreasing year by year. Among the specific varieties, LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. Concerns about import disruptions led to a sharp increase in LDPE prices. In the short term, sentiment pushed up the price of plastics. According to the news, the ports resumed cargo import and export on the 27th, weakening the impact on the supply side. The news stimulated the L futures market to rise. However, the current high inventory and the weakening of the peak demand season make it difficult to support continuous upward movement. PP has a relatively low import dependence and is less affected by this incident. Currently, the intensive maintenance of upstream PP plants provides temporary support to the supply side. However, the restricted export of downstream finished products and the fading peak season lead to a marginal weakening of demand, intensifying the supply-demand game, and the price is consolidating in a narrow range at a low level. [6] Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 660,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 0.76%; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons. The weakening of the PP futures market dragged down the atmosphere of the spot market. Some producers lowered their prices, weakening the cost support for the supply. Before the holiday, traders, based on the need for cash collection and inventory reduction, mainly sold at reduced prices. The pre-holiday stocking of downstream enterprises has basically ended, and their intention to enter the market for procurement during the day was not high, and most of the transactions in the morning were mediocre. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing in the morning was 7080 - 7300 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 7170 - 7300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of South China wire drawing was 7180 - 7380 yuan/ton. The PE market price was weakly adjusted. In the North China region, some linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the East China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear and low-pressure prices rose or fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the South China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure and linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the North China region was 7340 - 7600 yuan/ton, the price of LLDPE in the East China region was 7350 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the price of LLDPE in the South China region was 7550 - 7780 yuan/ton. [7][8] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L-PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two-oil inventory, and two-oil inventory year-on-year increase or decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [10][12][14]