Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 29, the coke futures main contract 2509 saw its center of gravity decline for three consecutive trading days, giving back most of the gains since April 23. The coking coal futures main contract 2509 weakened again, approaching the previous low of 924 yuan/ton set on April 22 [7]. - It is expected that in the first half of May, the coke and coking coal markets will stabilize and rebound after a second bottom - testing. One can try to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices during the above time period when the technical and fundamental aspects resonate, or try to buy the far - month 2509 contract for hedging or investment at low prices after the coal and coke prices stabilize [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On April 29, the KDJ indicators of the daily lines of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts showed a golden cross. The MACD red bar of the daily line of the coke 2509 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days, and the MACD red bar of the daily line of the coking coal 2509 contract turned to a slight narrowing [10]. - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1440 yuan/ton, and the price in Tangshan was 1370 yuan/ton with no change. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remained stable [10]. 3.1.2 Outlook - Coke: Downstream steel mills' production has further increased, and coking plants have significantly increased production for six consecutive weeks. After the inventories of steel mills and coking plants decreased significantly, they turned to a slight increase, while the port inventory declined from a high level. The coke price rebound requires the improvement of the finished steel market. It is expected that the coke market may improve following the finished steel in the first half of May [11]. - Coking Coal: In March, imports increased from the previous high, but the growth rate slowed down compared to January - February. The domestic coal industry still emphasizes the principle of ensuring supply. Although the output and operating rate of coal washing plants are significantly lower than those in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply remains loose. The significant decline in port inventory is positive, but the decline in steel mill inventory is not large. After coking plants actively replenish inventory, it will discount the subsequent price rebound. Whether the decline of coking coal can stop depends on whether the coke market can truly recover in the first half of May [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on accelerating the construction of the power spot market, with specific requirements for different regions' power spot markets to enter formal operation or start continuous settlement trial operation [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Basic Rules for the Power Auxiliary Service Market", requiring relevant departments to formulate and revise implementation rules for the auxiliary service market [12]. - As of the end of March 2025, the national local government debt balance was 5.0165 trillion yuan. In March 2025, the national issuance of local government bonds was 978.8 billion yuan [13]. - China Coal Industry Association conducted research in Zhejiang, emphasizing industry self - discipline, promoting coal supply - demand balance, and maintaining stable coal prices [13]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. held a performance briefing. In 2024, it achieved a total profit of 9.339 billion yuan, and in the first quarter of 2025, it achieved a total profit of 3.292 billion yuan. The impact of US tariff policies on its direct exports is minimal, and the impact of anti - dumping policies in South Korea and Vietnam is controllable [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest 6.266 billion yuan in 2025 [14]. - Yongtai Energy Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 28.357 billion yuan in 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.85%. The attributable net profit was 1.561 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 31.12%. The raw coal output in 2024 was 13.6801 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.46% [14]. - Liugang Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 1.7119 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 14.36%. The attributable net profit was 260 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 594.67% [14]. - Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 540 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 34.69%. The net profit was 152 million yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 79.50% [14]. - Zhejiang Energy Electric Power Co., Ltd. had an operating income of 1.76 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.09%. The attributable net profit was 1.074 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 40.81% [15]. - Jiangsu Guoxin Group Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 36.933 billion yuan in 2024, with a year - on - year increase of 6.83%. The attributable net profit was 3.238 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 73.12% [15]. - Shaanxi Iron and Steel Group and Shaanxi Black Cat Coking signed a strategic cooperation agreement [15]. - The average daily power generation of coal - fired power plants of power - generating groups included in the power industry fuel statistics increased by 8.1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year. The average daily coal consumption of power plants transported by sea increased by 8.0% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year [15]. - The 2025 spring centralized maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed three days ahead of schedule [16]. - Kaiyuan Securities gave a "Buy" rating to Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group Co., Ltd. [16]. - As of April 21, the annual cumulative coal transportation volume of the Shuohuang Railway exceeded 100 million tons [16]. - In the first quarter, the raw coal output of Ordos above - scale enterprises was 223.417 million tons, and the natural gas output was 8.34 billion cubic meters [16]. - Russia proposed to sign a government - to - government agreement with India to support the supply of coking coal and determine the supply of thermal coal [16]. - Whitehaven Coal Ltd.'s raw coal output in the third quarter of this fiscal year was 9.2 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter [16]. - If India adds 50,000 MW of renewable energy installed capacity annually, it can completely stop importing thermal coal by 2029 and save at least $173 billion from 2025 to 2034 [16]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants, the output and operating rate of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [18][19][24].
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250430
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-30 01:47