大越期货原油早报-20250430

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to weaken. The lack of significant progress in trade agreements between the US and other major economies, along with a sharp decline in the US consumer confidence index and the likelihood of OPEC+ significantly increasing production in June, have raised market concerns and led to a continuous decline in oil prices. There are no short - term positive events. It is recommended that investors control their positions and hold light positions during the holiday. The short - term price is expected to range between 474 - 483, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2506, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as Trump's auto - tariff relief measures, OPEC+ members' potential proposal to accelerate production increase, and the decline in US consumer confidence. The basis is neutral as the spot price is at par with the futures price. Inventory data is bearish with increases in API and EIA inventories. The disk is bearish as the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below the average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long and increasing [3]. 2. Recent News - Russia - Ukraine conflict: Putin insists on controlling four unoccupied regions in Ukraine, causing a deadlock in the negotiation efforts led by Trump. Direct contact between Putin and Trump is needed for further progress [5]. - Trade - related news: The credit ratings of the US and China are unlikely to be affected by the trade war in the short term. Trump says tariff negotiations with India are progressing well, and the US may have reached a trade agreement with a partner country, but the Treasury Secretary refuses to confirm [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanction risks [6]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade war has increased significantly, and Russian sanctions may end [6]. - Market drivers: The demand side is damaged by US policies, and Trump's rapidly changing policies also impact the market [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices: Brent crude oil settled at 63.28 (down 1.51, - 2.33%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), SC at 488.1 (down 6.10, - 1.23%), and Oman at 65.30 (down 2.47, - 3.64%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 64.37 (down 1.35, - 2.05%), WTI at 60.42 (down 1.63, - 2.63%), Oman at 64.89 (down 2.11, - 3.15%), Shengli at 62.03 (down 1.51, - 2.38%), and Dubai at 64.67 (down 2.34, - 3.49%) [9]. - Inventory data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 376 million barrels in the week ending April 25, and EIA inventory increased by 24.4 million barrels in the week ending April 18 [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 24,585 [16]. - Brent crude oil main position: As of April 22, the net long position increased by 29,432 [18].