大越期货甲醇早报-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may see an oscillating trend, while the inland market may experience a slight decline. The price of MA2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may face a weakening supply - demand situation due to the potential increase in imported goods, while the inland market may decline as downstream replenishment nears completion. The price of MA2509 is expected to oscillate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - Positive Factors: Some plants are shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected import volume in March is low, and port inventories have decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the weather in Iran has warmed, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol prices have risen significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream industries; upstream factories are actively selling goods due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, with a basis of 142 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 348,600 tons, a decrease of 101,600 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 74,400 tons to 198,300 tons [5]. - Market Quotes: The closing price of methanol futures was 2278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from the previous value. The number of registered warrants decreased by 172 to 6934, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 1222 [7]. - Price Spread Structure: The basis increased by 36 to 159; the import price spread increased by 32 to 50; the price spread between Jiangsu and other regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased, while the operating rate in East China remained unchanged [7]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, and other regions. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [58]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. Some plants in the United States and Trinidad have low operating rates or are shut down [59].