工业硅期货早报-20250430

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, despite increased cost support, weak demand and high inventory levels suggest a bearish outlook. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, although there are signs of production increase and cost stability, overall demand is currently declining but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is predicted to oscillate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 20.23% decrease from the previous week, remaining persistently weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,139 yuan/ton, with increased cost support during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 810 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 602,000 tons, a 1.63% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 251,900 tons, a 1.46% decrease; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Forecast: Supply production is decreasing, demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is rising. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The predicted production for April is 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.38 GW, a 1.40% decrease; inventory was 195,300 tons, a 7.18% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,940 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3,560 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On April 29th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 259,000 tons, a 3.18% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical data [11]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Forecast: Supply production continues to increase, while demand for silicon wafers may decrease in the medium - term after a short - term increase. Battery cell and component production are on the rise. Overall demand is currently weak but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market overview: It includes price changes of different contracts, inventory data, production, and basis information [17]. - Polysilicon market overview: Covers price changes of different contracts, production, inventory, and cost data [19]. - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: Analyzes the historical trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [21]. - Industrial silicon inventory: Displays historical inventory data of different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: Shows the historical production and capacity utilization of different regions [25]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: Presents the historical cost and profit trends of different regions [31]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets: Analyze the supply - demand balance situation of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [33][36]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: Includes price, production, inventory, and import - export data of organic silicon products [39]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: Covers price, supply, inventory, and production data of aluminum alloy products, as well as related demand data from the automotive and wheel hub industries [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: Analyzes the fundamental trends, supply - demand balance, and cost - profit data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [57].