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建信期货铁矿石日评-20250430
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-30 03:01

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of iron ore are relatively healthy, and overseas trade risks are gradually easing. However, last Friday, there was a rumor of "crude steel production restrictions" in the market, which changed market sentiment and suppressed the raw material sector. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On April 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened higher, oscillated and fell back, and then rebounded, closing at 709.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The prices of major iron ore outer disks remained flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days [7][9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals at 45 ports rebounded. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil in the past 4 weeks decreased by 1.33% compared with the previous 4 weeks. It is expected that the future arrivals will basically remain at a medium level [10] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased significantly and reached a new high since October 2023. Steel enterprises maintained strong production, and the demand for iron ore remained relatively strong [10] - Inventory: Last week, the available days of steel mill inventory increased by 1 day to 21 days. Steel mills still mainly replenished inventory on demand, and there was no obvious increase in inventory replenishment before the May Day holiday. Port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the port inventory will remain at the current level in the near future [11] 3.2 Industry News - On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that as of April 27, 24:00, the number of old-for-new cars nationwide reached 2.814 million, 12 types of household appliances reached 49.416 million, digital products such as mobile phones reached 37.855 million, home improvement and kitchen and bathroom "renewal" reached 40.906 million, and old-for-new electric bicycles exceeded 4.2 million, driving related consumer goods sales of about 720 billion yuan and supporting a 4.6% year-on-year increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to local governments to support the old-for-new consumer goods program [12] - On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on carrying out a cleanup and rectification campaign against market access barriers to promote the construction of a unified national market. The focus of this cleanup and rectification is to eliminate various regulations and documents that violate the requirements of the market access system and various practices of local governments setting illegal market access barriers [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high-grade ore, low-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax-free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking production capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and production capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][17][21]