大越期货PVC期货早报-20250430

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The current demand is close to the historical average level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: In March 2025, the PVC output was 2.069132 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand side: The overall downstream start - up rate was 48.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.069 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.9%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 49.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.620 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 69.44%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand is close to the historical average [8]. - Cost side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2222.95 yuan/ton, with the profit unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and the scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. - Other aspects: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions; on April 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the factory inventory was 420,201 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, the calcium carbide method factory inventory was 327,641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%, the ethylene method factory inventory was 92,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.48%, the social inventory was 420,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.71%, and the inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%; MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [8][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview data, including the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, start - up rates, and profits [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - price trend: The report shows the historical trends of the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - Price and trading volume trends: It shows the price trends (including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price) and trading volume trends of the main PVC futures contract from March to April 2025, as well as the trends of the positions of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - Spread analysis: It presents the historical trends of the spreads of the main PVC futures contracts from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium carbide method - related aspects: It includes the price trends of semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., as well as their cost - profit situations, start - up rates, output, and inventory situations [26][29][31][33]. - Supply situation: It shows the historical trends of the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes [38][40]. - Demand situation: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rates (including profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, etc.), and the profit, output, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also presents the real - estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][48][54][57]. - Inventory situation: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - Ethylene method - related aspects: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price spreads of the ethylene method FOB (Tianjin - Taiwan) and vinyl chloride import (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [60][61]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and imports [63][64].