大越期货沥青期货早报-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - In April 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 39.4115%, a month - on - month increase of 2.477 percentage points. The refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is all below the historical average, although they have increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 594.51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 619.09 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation - The refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and fails to meet expectations. Inventory is continuously decreasing. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3397 - 3463 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [7]. - Basis: On April 29, the Shandong spot price was 3560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [10]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Factory inventory was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged at 140,000 tons. Social inventory is continuously increasing, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory remains stable. Bullish [10]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20. Neutral [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with long positions turning to short. Bearish [10]. - Likely Positive Factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - Likely Negative Factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - Main Logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview, including the prices, price changes, and price change rates of different asphalt contracts, inventory, production, and other indicators [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [65]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the difference between asphalt import and export from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - Downstream Demand: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of downstream mechanical demand such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales [87][91][93]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][99][102][104]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from April 2024 to April 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [107].