摩根大通：集装箱航运-与德鲁里专家会议反馈强化我们对该行业的谨慎观点；马士基评级为减持 - 谨慎观望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on the container shipping sector, specifically placing Maersk underweight (UW) and highlighting downside risks for ZIM and Hapag-Lloyd as well [1][7]. Core Insights - The global container shipping industry is facing increased volatility, particularly in the Asia-North America trade lane, which accounts for approximately 17% of global containerized trade. Recent booking declines from China have been noted, with Hapag-Lloyd reporting a 30% year-over-year decrease in China-US bookings [1]. - Drewry has downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 to a -1% decline in container volume throughput, contrasting with a previous forecast of +3% in January. Supply growth is expected to rise by 5.4% in 2025, leading to a significant imbalance in the market [1][5]. - Drewry anticipates a 15% year-over-year decline in global freight rates for 2025, followed by an additional 18% decline in 2026. This forecast does not yet account for the potential return of capacity to the Suez Canal, which could exert further downward pressure on rates [1][5]. - The demand-supply outlook is increasingly negative, with Drewry projecting a 1% decline in container port handling volumes for 2025, driven by a 5.7% decrease in North America and a 4.5% decrease in China [1][5]. - The report indicates that while blank sailings have increased as a form of capacity management, rates have continued to decline, highlighting the challenges carriers face in maintaining schedule reliability and customer relationships [1][5]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Outlook - Drewry's Global Supply/Demand Index is under gradual pressure, with expectations of increased scrapping post-2026. However, order cancellations are rare, and delivery delays may occur [1][5]. - The report notes that the Asia-US contracting season is closing, with carriers offering discounts to maintain market share, despite spot rates declining since the beginning of the year [5]. Tariff and Policy Implications - The revised USTR charges on Chinese shipbuilding are viewed as less severe than initially proposed, with fees now applied based on net tonnage. Drewry advises shippers to resist accepting surcharges related to these fees [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the US import cliff has not yet materialized, with potential impacts expected to be seen from mid-May onwards. Utilization rates on key trade lanes have shown a material drop, indicating further challenges ahead [7][10].