《农产品》日报-20250430

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: With the release of end - of - month fundamental data and limited expected inventory increase at the end of April, crude palm oil futures may continue to oscillate upwards. The post - holiday trend of domestic palm oil depends on the performance of Malaysian palm oil during the May Day holiday. If it rebounds and tests the annual resistance line, domestic palm oil may rise; otherwise, it may break down and hit new lows [1]. - Soybean oil: The positive news of reduced US soybean oil inventory has been digested, and there are no new short - term negative factors. CBOT soybean oil will mainly oscillate below the daily upper track, and profit - taking by funds may drag down its price later. In the domestic market, high prices are not accepted by downstream, and although the increase in the operating rate of some oil mills has a certain impact on the spot basis, the tight supply pattern of soybean oil will not ease until the second half of May. The basis will still be supported in the short term after May Day [1]. Sugar Industry - The new sugar - crushing season in Brazil has started, and the market has raised the production forecast for Thailand due to weather support. The market still expects an increase in production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will oscillate widely in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The specific impact needs to be observed after the May rainy season. Later, the issuance of import licenses and the increase in imports may dominate the market. The domestic sugar supply and demand are generally loose, and the upside space for sugar prices is limited. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [4]. Cotton Industry - Cotton prices are currently mainly influenced by macro factors, and the uncertainty of macro factors is still high. Attention should be paid to the development of the tariff war initiated by the US. If tariffs are gradually reduced as the US claims, it will be relatively positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative for cotton prices in the medium term. Downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory of finished products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure is not large. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro developments [6]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, the supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand has decreased, and the purchasing attitude is cautious. The supply - demand contradiction has intensified. It is expected that the national egg price will decline slightly this week and then stabilize [7]. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is in an oscillation range, and there is no weather - related speculation yet, while demand concerns continue to affect market sentiment. The supply pressure from Brazil is still being realized, and there will be a peak in Brazilian soybean supply in the next two to three months. In the short term, domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, resulting in a low operating rate of domestic oil mills and a continuous decline in oil mill soybean meal inventory. Coupled with the May Day stocking demand, the basis has continued to rise, and the spot price is strong. However, the market's willingness to accept high - priced goods is limited. In May, as the impact of customs clearance weakens, the basis is expected to decline [10]. Corn Industry - The market supply of corn is tight, and the spot price is strong. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, and the grain rights have transferred to traders. Northeast traders are firm in holding prices, and prices in North China have been forced up due to farmers' reluctance to sell and the drought speculation of wheat. Downstream deep - processing enterprises have rigid demand for stocking, and the breeding demand is recovering, but the high port inventory restricts the upside space for corn prices. In the long - term, the tightening supply, weakening imports and substitutes, and recovering breeding demand will support corn prices, but the substitution expectation of new - season wheat may limit the upside space. In the short term, the market center of gravity has moved up due to supply tightening and bullish sentiment, but there is pressure above, and attention should be paid to the 2370 pressure level and market sentiment, substitution, and policy [12]. Pig Industry - The entry of second - fattening farmers previously pushed up pig prices, but it is difficult for the terminal market to follow the price increase. Recently, second - fattening transactions have significantly declined, and pig prices have fallen. The narrowing of the price difference between fat and standard pigs is not conducive to the price of large - fat pigs in the hands of retail farmers, and it is more difficult for the pig weight to increase due to the hot weather, leading to an increase in the number of pigs for sale. The demand side is still weak, and there is no actual consumption growth to support pig prices, which are expected to remain in an oscillating pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of second - fattening pigs around May Day [15][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Price Changes: On April 29, compared with April 28, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8370 yuan per ton, and the price of Y2509 futures contract decreased by 6 yuan to 7866 yuan per ton. The inventory of soybean oil warehouses increased by 31.96%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan to 8980 yuan per ton, and the P2509 futures contract decreased by 60 yuan to 8506 yuan per ton [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of soybean oil and palm oil has changed, and the inter - period spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have also fluctuated. For example, the 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 14 yuan to 62 yuan [1]. Sugar Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On April 29, the price of the sugar 2505 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 6174 yuan per ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 41 yuan to 5936 yuan per ton. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.25 cents to 17.58 cents per pound. The spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan to 6210 yuan per ton [4]. - Industry Indicators: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.27% year - on - year, the cumulative sales increased by 26.64% year - on - year, and the national sugar industrial inventory decreased by 1.79% year - on - year [4]. Cotton Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On April 29, the price of the cotton 2505 contract decreased by 115 yuan to 12560 yuan per ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 110 yuan to 12840 yuan per ton. The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 1.00 cent to 66.56 cents per pound. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton decreased by 16 yuan to 13982 yuan per ton [6]. - Industry Indicators: The commercial inventory of cotton decreased by 6.7% month - on - month, the industrial inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 41.7% month - on - month [6]. Egg Industry - Prices and Spreads: On April 29, the price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 3 yuan to 3809 yuan per 500KG, and the 05 contract increased by 6 yuan to 3139 yuan per 500KG. The egg production area price decreased by 0.06 yuan to 3.28 yuan per catty [7]. - Industry Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged at 4.25 yuan per chick, the price of culled chickens increased by 0.14 yuan to 5.19 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit increased by 2.51 yuan to - 6.03 yuan per chick [7]. Meal Industry - Prices and Spreads: On April 29, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased by 80 yuan to 3420 yuan per ton, and the M2509 futures contract decreased by 21 yuan to 2964 yuan per ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan to 2550 yuan per ton, and the RM2509 futures contract decreased by 53 yuan to 2588 yuan per ton [10]. - Industry Indicators: The soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 16.0%, and the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts increased by 350.00%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the 2509 contract increased by 32 yuan to 376 yuan [10]. Corn Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On April 29, the price of the corn 2507 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 2355 yuan per ton, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price increased by 10 yuan to 2280 yuan per ton, and the basis increased by 16 yuan to - 75 yuan per ton [12]. - Industry Indicators: The number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased by 9 to 136, and the corn warehouse receipts increased by 18.93% [12]. Pig Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On April 29, the price of the pig 2507 contract decreased by 35 yuan to 13450 yuan per ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 200 yuan to 13930 yuan per ton. The spot price in Henan remained unchanged at 14830 yuan per ton [15]. - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 2.62% to 151015 heads, the weekly white - strip pig price decreased by 20.9 yuan to 0.00 yuan per kilogram, and the weekly piglet price decreased by 1.1 yuan to 26.94 yuan [15].