《有色》日报-20250430

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak with a strong bearish sentiment. The supply pressure is clear due to increased production and overseas ore arrivals. The supply increment in April is expected to slow down marginally. Demand is generally stable but falls short of expectations during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in energy storage export orders. The overall demand lacks further drivers, and the pressure may increase in the future. The inventory is still high, and the short - term market is expected to remain weak, with the main contract price ranging from 65,000 to 70,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated. Spot prices remained stable, and some traders sold secondary resources at low prices due to pre - holiday capital requirements. The ore price is relatively firm, but the ferronickel price is loosening. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan [5]. Nickel - The nickel market maintained a weak oscillation. Spot prices rose slightly. The macro - level sentiment has gradually recovered, but there is still policy uncertainty. The cost of nickel products may increase, and the ferronickel price is under pressure. The industry cost - pricing model continues, and the inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [7]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is general after the peak season, and the downstream maintains rigid procurement. Trump's statement on tariff reduction has led to a short - term rebound in zinc prices. In the future, the zinc price may move downward if the terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariffs, or it may maintain a high - level oscillation if the ore supply and downstream consumption perform unexpectedly. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan [9]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply - side production capacity remains high, and the bauxite price is expected to decline. The demand is stable but with limited growth, and the export demand has decreased. The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price provides some support. The short - term trend is weakly oscillating. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply - side production capacity is stable, and the demand is seasonally strong but may weaken in the future. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The short - term focus is on the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan level, and the price may be under pressure in the future [12]. Copper - Macroeconomically, the tariff pressure has been slightly relieved. The supply side has a tight raw material situation, and the demand side is resilient. The inventory has been well - depleted. The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", and the price is expected to oscillate. The main contract price should be monitored at the 77,000 - 78,000 yuan pressure level [13]. Tin - The supply of tin ore has been tight, but the supply pressure is expected to ease with the resumption of production in some mines. The demand side has seen some improvement in the soldering tin industry, but the overall demand expectation is pessimistic due to uncertain tariffs. A bearish view on rebounds is recommended [15]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 decreased by 0.87% to 68,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 decreased by 0.89% to 66,500 yuan/ton; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide均价 decreased by 0.29% to 67,710 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide均价 decreased by 0.32% to 61,700 yuan/ton; the CIF price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 0.56% to 8.80 dollars/kg. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 540 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from the previous value; the spread between 2506 - 2507 was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2512 was - 2880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons; battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 18.18% to 55,715 tons; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 38.12% to 23,350 tons; lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons; lithium carbonate imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons; lithium carbonate exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons. In April, the lithium carbonate production capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the operating rate increased by 20% to 54%. In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons; the downstream inventory increased by 27.94% to 39,293 tons; the smelter inventory increased by 9.40% to 50,777 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,020 yuan/ton and 13,100 yuan/ton respectively. The basis (spot - futures price difference) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons; exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons; net exports increased by 196.56% to 34.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.53% to 54.42 million tons; the cold - rolled social inventory decreased by 2.67% to 35.96 million tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.09% to 16.31 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.44% to 125,600 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.36% to 126,550 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 6.67% to 2,100 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel increased by 0.48% to 124,600 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 38.79% to - 200 dollars/ton; the futures import loss decreased by 12.64% to - 3,650 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 7.99 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 remained unchanged at - 140 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [7]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons; social inventory increased by 1.51% to 43,960 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 5,800 tons; LME inventory increased by 0.07% to 201,564 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.07% to 24,368 tons [7]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.39% to 22,970 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged. SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) increased by 0.65% to 23,060 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 66.96 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.60 [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 decreased by 240 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 225 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 remained unchanged at 140 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons; imports increased by 98.28% to 5.28 million tons; exports decreased by 52.41% to 0.10 million tons. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.90% to 62.44%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate increased by 0.59% to 58.98%; the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.02% to 59.77%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 7.63% to 8.59 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.40% to 17.9 million tons [9]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.35% to 20,020 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged. The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,860 yuan/ton; in Henan it increased by 0.17% to 2,900 yuan/ton; in Shanxi it increased by 0.35% to 2,900 yuan/ton; in Guangxi it remained unchanged at 2,890 yuan/ton; in Guizhou it remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 1,198 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.20 [12]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 70 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 35 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons; electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons to 22.21 million tons; exports increased by 0.5 million tons to 0.89 million tons. The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 1.71% to 59.50%; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.60%; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips remained unchanged at 68.00%; the operating rate of aluminum foils remained unchanged at 73.00%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys remained unchanged at 55.40%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China decreased by 4.46% to 64.30 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% to 42.0 million tons [12]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.61% to 78,035 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.53% to 78,035 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton; SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.60% to 77,965 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper spread increased by 1.62% to 1,386 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 increased to 16.41 dollars/ton; the import loss increased to - 414 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.25; the Yangshan copper premium increased by 1.08% to 94 dollars/ton [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons; imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 22.50% to - 42.52 dollars/ton; the copper concentrate inventory at domestic mainstream ports increased by 13.45% to 80.20 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 1.49% to 79.56%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production decreased by 7.82% to 22.00%. The domestic social inventory decreased by 21.07% to 15.51 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3.84% to 8.51 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 31.97% to 11.68 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.15% to 20.25 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 2.40% to 13.51 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 94.52% to 3.69 million tons [13]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin increased by 0.77% to 262,200 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.77% to 262,700 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 1.16% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss increased by 8.35% to - 11,547.33 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.14 [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 -