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生猪市场周报:节日需求提高,支撑价格波动-20250430
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 08:36

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the pig market are weak. Although holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound after the festival, the market will face pressure again later. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [5][6]. - On the supply side, as the May Day holiday approaches, some breeders and second - fattening farmers are selling large pigs, increasing the average weight of slaughtered pigs. The risk of second - fattening has increased, and the enthusiasm for entry has weakened. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually emerge after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [6]. - On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. It is expected that the terminal demand will improve during the May Day holiday, but the demand may cool down again after the holiday, and the operating rate may first increase and then decrease. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Wait for a rebound to short [5]. - Market review: Pig prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week. Market outlook: Supply pressure will gradually increase in the medium term, and demand may first increase and then decrease. Holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound, but the market will be under pressure again [6]. Futures Market Situation - Futures prices fell, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week [6][10]. - The net short position in futures decreased, and the number of futures warrants increased. As of April 30, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 15,386 lots, a decrease of 2,407 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warrants was 705, an increase of 40 from the previous week [12][16]. Spot Market Situation - The basis of the May contract was 1,110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 1,290 yuan/ton [20]. - The national average pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but an increase of 0.86% from the previous month [27]. - The national average pork price was 26.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - As of April 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [37]. Upstream Situation - In March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 270,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly in March [42]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year. In March, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [45]. - In March, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national foreign - ternary pigs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from the previous week [48]. Industry Situation - As of April 25, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head from the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from the previous week [53]. - From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58]. - As of April 25, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week; as of April 24, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.1 yuan/kg, a narrowing of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. - As of April 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,544.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 424 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,313.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.16 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - As of April 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 951.35, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [73]. - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [77]. Downstream Situation - In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous week and 0.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week [80]. - As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [85]. Pig - related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [86].