硅锰市场周报：锰矿港口库存回升，硅锰需求偏弱运行-20250430

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is under pressure on the macro level, and its general trend follows that of steel. With an increase in manganese ore port inventories, the cost support weakens. The silicon-manganese market is expected to operate weakly [6]. - The global economic growth slowdown, partly due to trade turmoil, will cause global commodity prices to decline by 12% in 2025. The supply side of silicon-manganese is facing production losses, and the downstream demand shows signs of a peak and decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - Ending Summary - Macro Aspect: The China Iron and Steel Association will remind 6 steel enterprises with negative cash - flow in the main steel business in 2024 and the first quarter and increasing crude steel production. The high US tariffs and other countries' trade barriers may affect China's steel exports by over 20 million tons in 2025 [6]. - Overseas Aspect: The US consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 outbreak, and the World Bank predicts a 12% decline in global commodity prices in 2025 [6]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: The supply side is experiencing production losses, so the production enthusiasm is low. Manganese ore port inventories have increased, and downstream pig iron production may have peaked. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender quantity has decreased [6]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of silicon - manganese 2509 is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The silicon - manganese market should be treated as operating weakly, as it is under pressure on the macro level and the cost support has weakened [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of April 30, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest decreased by 7,200 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 10. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,430, and the price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 4 [8][12][14]. - Spot Market: As of April 30, the ex - factory average price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 [23]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply: As of April 23, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 41.59%, a decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The daily average output was 26,580 tons, a decrease of 365 tons [28]. - Inventory: As of April 24, the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 181,800 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons. The inventory situation varied by region [32]. - Upstream: As of April 29, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained stable. As of April 21, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon production remained unchanged. The manganese ore port inventory increased by 328,000 tons to 4.055 million tons as of April 25. The arrivals of manganese ore from different countries showed different trends [38][43]. - Downstream: As of April 25, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons from the previous week. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese tender price in April was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared to March [52].