Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion, with potential support for aluminum products [6] - For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, consider light - position short - term long trading at low prices; for the Alumina main contract, consider light - position oscillating trading [6] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.6%, closing at 19,910 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 4.11%, closing at 2,729 yuan/ton [6] - Market Outlook: Internationally, Trump relaxed automobile tariff policies, and the US reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan in super - long - term special treasury bond funds. Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite will seasonally decrease later. The alumina market has a slight contraction in supply and a steady increase in demand. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and inventory digestion [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices for the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and light - position oscillating trading for the Alumina main contract [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Price Movement: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum closing price was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.33%) from April 23. As of April 29, 2025, the LME Aluminum closing price was 2,465.5 US dollars/ton, up 85.5 US dollars/ton (3.59%) from April 23. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.11, up 0.27 from April 23 [9][10] - Position Changes: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 512,828 lots, down 15,640 lots (2.96%) from April 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 12,582 lots, down 875 lots from April 23 [13] - Price Spread Changes: As of April 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 2,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from April 23. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,310 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from April 23 [18] - Spot Price Movement: As of April 30, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,090 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (0.7%) from April 23. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [21] - Inventory Changes: As of April 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 417,575 tons, down 14,125 tons (3.27%) from April 22. As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 175,857 tons, down 2,740 tons (1.53%) from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 610,000 tons, down 31,000 tons (4.84%) from April 21. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 68,563 tons, down 9,255 tons (11.89%) from April 23. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 250,875 tons, down 1,200 tons (0.48%) from April 22 [25] 3. Industry Situation - Bauxite: In March 2025, the monthly bauxite imports were 16.4657 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.26% and a year - on - year increase of 39.06%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative bauxite imports were 47.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.93% [29] - Alumina: As of April 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,745 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (2.38%) from April 23. In March 2025, the alumina output was 7.4752 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina output was 22.5959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In March 2025, the alumina imports were 11,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 96.31%. The alumina exports were 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.86% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina imports were 77,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.94% [32][35] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 222,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum imports were 361,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 8,700 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum exports were 21,000 tons. In 2024 from January to November, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 295,100 tons. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 374,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 1.1066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [38][43] - Aluminum Products: In March 2025, the aluminum products output was 598,170 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products output was 1.5405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In March 2025, the aluminum products imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. The exports were 510,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products imports were 950,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The exports were 1.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [46] - Aluminum Alloys: In March 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 165,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 414,400 tons. In March 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 89,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. The exports were 18,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy imports were 280,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.81%. The exports were 53,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [49] - Real Estate: In March 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.96, an increase of 0.17 from the previous month and 2.1 from the same period last year. From January to March 2024, the new housing construction area was 129.964559 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.8%. The housing completion area was 130.602722 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51% [53] - Infrastructure and Automobiles: From January to March 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 11.5% year - on - year. In March 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 2,915,476 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The automobile production was 3,005,833 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% [56] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating movement of aluminum prices in the future, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [60]
铝类市场周报：供需双增逐步降库，铝类或将有所支撑-20250430
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 09:22