碳酸锂市场周报：供给偏多需求放缓，碳酸锂或有所承压-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.26% and an amplitude of 3.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 65,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 81 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds in the second batch this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - In terms of fundamentals, overseas miners still maintain high quotes, but due to the continuous decline in lithium carbonate spot prices and the slowdown of raw material demand caused by the contraction of smelter production, lithium ore prices are generally weak. - From the supply side, non - integrated smelters may face a decline in production profits due to low lithium prices, and their production and operating rates may decrease. After comprehensively considering the increase and decrease factors, it is expected that the domestic supply of lithium carbonate will only slightly decrease. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises have basically completed restocking. As the downstream consumption peak season is coming to an end, the growth rate of lithium carbonate demand from downstream processing enterprises is expected to slow down. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory continues to accumulate, and the market supply - demand pattern remains in a state of oversupply. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position trading with a weak and volatile trend and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly line. The weekly increase or decrease was - 3.26%, the amplitude was 3.29%, and the main contract was quoted at 65,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Outlook: Macro policies support consumption replacement. In terms of fundamentals, lithium ore prices are weak, supply may slightly decrease, demand growth will slow down, and inventory continues to accumulate [5]. - Strategy: Light - position trading with a weak and volatile trend, paying attention to risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of April 30, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 65,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,020 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 520 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Price: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,020 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 788 US dollars/ton, with a flat week - on - week change. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2653, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of April 30, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,019 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 77 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 175 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Imports and Exports: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons from February, a growth rate of 47.03%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons from February, a decline of 47.25%, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.68% [33]. - Production: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.78%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of April 30, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons from February, a growth rate of 17.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.39% [36]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,250 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change. As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 11.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.56%. The operating rate was 57%, with a month - on - month change of 0% and a year - on - year change of - 2% [41]. - Ternary Materials: As of March 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons from February, a growth rate of 20.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.86%. The operating rate was 48%, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [44]. - Lithium Manganate: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons from February, a growth rate of 9.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.92%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change [49]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of March 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons from February, a growth rate of 13.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.47%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change [52]. 3.4.3 Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of March 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.16% of the cumulative sales of automobiles (penetration rate), a month - on - month increase of 0.85% and a year - on - year increase of 10.06%. The monthly output was 1,277,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 43.81%; the sales volume was 1,237,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 38.68% [55]. - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of March 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 441,000, a year - on - year increase of 43.65% [59]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.147, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [62].