期债分化严重，等待短端企稳

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamentals show a marginal recovery trend, but the foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations are to be further strengthened. Overseas, there are signs of economic slowdown in the US, and the Fed's policy still leans towards combating inflation. The bond market is likely to return to the fundamental - driven logic, with the interest rate center having room to decline. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities [97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2503, T2503, TF2503, TS2503) rose by 0.90%, 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased. The positions of TS and TL main contracts decreased, while those of TF and T main contracts increased [9][19][25]. - Treasury Bond Futures Market Review: This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed overall upward trends, with different increases for different maturities [13][19]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: On April 28, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce optimized the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers. The Politburo meeting proposed to stabilize and activate the capital market. "Second - home to first - home" can enjoy special tax deductions for housing loan interest. On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement [31]. - Overseas News: The IMF lowered the GDP growth forecast for Asia this year to 3.9%. The US Treasury plans to net borrow $514 billion in the second quarter. The US consumer confidence index in April was at a new low since May 2020 [32]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes - Treasury Yield Spreads: The spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y Treasury yields narrowed. The spreads between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures all narrowed slightly [38][47][53]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract increased [64]. - Interest Rate Changes - Shibor and Treasury Yield: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.78%. The yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities decreasing by 0.5 - 3bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.62% and 1.86% respectively [68]. - China - US Treasury Yield Spread: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - Central Bank's Open - Market Operations: This week, the central bank conducted 1.1503 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan. The capital shortage situation improved [77]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the total bond issuance was 593.747 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 669.751 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 76.004 billion yuan [81]. - Market Sentiment - Exchange Rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2014, with a cumulative increase of 52 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [84]. - US Treasury Yield and VIX Index: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly this week [89]. - A - share Risk Premium: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly this week [94]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Fundamentals and Policy: The domestic economy is in a marginal recovery, but the foundation needs to be consolidated. Overseas, the US economy shows signs of slowdown. The bond market is expected to return to the fundamental - driven logic, and the interest rate center may decline. Attention should be paid to the coordinated effect of the potential Fed rate - cut in June and the domestic RRR - cut window [97]. - Investment Strategy: Given the current differentiation between short - and long - term Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities. If the short - end does not stabilize, beware of the risk of long - end decline due to the correction of term spreads [97].