Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The hot-rolled coil futures price is weakly operating under the influence of tariff disturbances and the recovery of apparent demand. The macro environment has both domestic positive signals and overseas uncertainties. The supply and demand situation shows that production is increasing, demand is resilient, and inventory is decreasing. Cost factors are mixed, with iron ore being relatively resistant to decline and coke having a second round of price increases. Technically, the HC2510 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to conduct range trading on the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: As of April 30, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot-rolled coil was 3260 yuan/ton (+0). The production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase to 317.5 (+3.1) million tons. Terminal demand was resilient, with the apparent demand in this period at 324.36 (+0.2) million tons (year - on - year +0.89). The total inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks to 367.69 (-6.86) million tons (year - on - year -42.3). The steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from last week and 6.93 percentage points from last year [6]. - Market Outlook: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, the capacity utilization rate remained above 80%, inventories in factories and society declined, and the apparent demand continued to rise. In terms of cost, iron ore was relatively resistant to decline, port inventories increased, and iron water production also increased; coal mines were in normal production, coke enterprises' production capacity utilization rate increased, and coke prices had a second round of increases. Technically, the HC2510 contract's daily K - line was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 - axis. The recommended strategy is range trading for the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: This week, the HC2510 contract fluctuated weakly and was weaker than the HC2601 contract. On the 30th, the price difference was -28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. - Warehouse Receipts and Positions: On April 30, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 334,016 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,185 tons. The net long position of the top 20 in the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 118,068 lots, a decrease of 18,409 lots from the previous week [20]. - Spot Price: On April 30, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil 5.75mm Q235 was 3260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3331 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot-rolled coils was similar to the futures price, and on the 30th, the basis was 56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw Material Prices: On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. - Shipping and Arrival Volumes: From April 21 - 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 27.584 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.207 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.304 million tons [35]. - Inventory: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31 million tons. The coke inventory of coking plants increased, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.27%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points [40][44]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 27.429 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased to 367.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.86 million tons [48][51][55]. - Demand Side: From January to March 2025, the total output of the Chinese automobile industry was 7.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%; the total sales were 7.47 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of household appliances also increased year - on - year [58].
热轧卷板市场周报：关税扰动、表需回升，热卷期价弱势运行-20250430
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 10:48