瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures fell 0.95%, and the glass futures fell 3.48%. The soda ash market was supported by inventory decline but restricted by weak downstream demand, while the glass market was affected by the macro - environment and the real estate situation, showing a weak trend [6][10]. - In the future, the supply of the soda ash market will remain loose, and the inventory is expected to level off after the peak installation of photovoltaic glass. The supply of the glass market will remain stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1290 - 1390 with a stop - loss range of 1260 - 1420, and operate the FG2509 in the range of 1060 - 1220 with a stop - loss range of 1040 - 1260 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures fell 0.95%, with the 09 contract rising and then falling. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 1.88 million tons to 1.6722 billion tons, a decline of 1.11%. Glass futures fell 3.48%, with the main contract in a weak position, affected by the real - estate description in the Politburo meeting, but still supported by costs [6]. - Market Outlook: The soda ash industry's high - level production will continue, and the supply will remain loose. The inventory may level off after the peak of photovoltaic glass installation. The glass supply will remain stable, with high inventory and weak demand due to the sluggish real - estate market [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade SA2509 in the 1290 - 1390 range with a stop - loss of 1260 - 1420, and operate FG2509 in the 1060 - 1220 range with a stop - loss of 1040 - 1260 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: Zhengzhou soda ash's main contract fell 0.95%, and Zhengzhou glass's main contract fell 3.48% this week [10]. - Basis: Soda ash's spot price fell, and the basis strengthened, approaching one - standard deviation. Glass's spot price remained flat, and the basis weakened due to the decline in futures prices [18][22]. - Spread: The soda ash - glass spread continued to strengthen, mainly due to the over - decline of glass, and is expected to continue strengthening [27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Production and Capacity: The domestic soda ash's operating rate increased to 88.89%, while the output decreased to 755,100 tons. The number of glass production lines remained stable, and the daily output decreased to 157,800 tons. The photovoltaic glass's operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume increased, but are expected to decline after the festival [31][43][47]. - Profit: Soda ash and glass enterprises' profits increased. Soda ash's profit increased due to cost changes, and glass's profit varied by production method, with an expected slight decline next week [37]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprises' inventory decreased to 1.6722 billion tons, mainly due to the increase in photovoltaic glass's daily melting volume, and is expected to level off. Glass enterprises' inventory decreased to 64.989 million heavy boxes, mainly due to increased automobile sales and dealer restocking, and is expected to rise slightly next week [53]. - Downstream Demand: The glass's downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly but remained at a historical low, indicating weak downstream confidence [59].