Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to tariff disturbances and increasing inventory. The operation strategy for the iron ore 2509 contract is to be bearish on the oscillation, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of April 30, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703.5 yuan/ton (-5.5 yuan/ton), and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton (+2 yuan/dry ton) [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 million tons, an increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,647.2 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, an increase of 124.6 million tons [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [5]. - The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [5]. - As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 663.11 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.93 percentage points [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals, and measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one as they mature [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased, and the inventory at domestic ports has changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected further increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and pig iron output has changed from decreasing to increasing [7]. - Technical aspect: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract is under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination is in a short - position arrangement. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 axis [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, and the spread on the 30th was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On April 30, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,200, unchanged from the previous week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of iron ore futures contracts was 219, an increase of 2,140 from the previous week [21]. c. Spot Price - On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 30th was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Upstream Market a. Arrival Volume - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [31]. b. Mine Capacity Utilization and BDI Index - As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.99%, and the inventory was 65.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 million tons. On April 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,398, a week - on - week increase of 25 [35]. 4. Industry Situation a. Port Inventory - This week, the 62% iron ore Platts index was in a narrow - range consolidation. On April 29, the price was 99.3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars/ton compared to April 25. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons, and the average daily port clearance volume was 343.22 million tons, an increase of 20.91 million tons [39]. b. Steel Mill Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 301.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 days. As of April 24, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day [42]. 5. Downstream Market a. Steel Production and Trade - In March 2025, the crude steel output was 9,284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the daily average output was 299.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. From January to March, the cumulative crude steel output was 25,933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 2,742.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the cumulative import of steel was 155.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3% [45]. b. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Pig Iron Output - On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.60 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [48]. 6. Options Market - Due to tariff disturbances and increasing iron ore port inventory, the black series is generally weak. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [51].
铁矿石市场周报：关税扰动VS库存增加，铁矿石期价震荡偏弱-20250430
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 10:48