沪铜市场周报：供给收敛需求渐涨，沪铜或将有所支撑-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is entering a new stage with slowing supply growth, steady demand recovery, and positive consumption expectations, and the fundamental support is gradually strengthening. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract showed a volatile trend, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 0.28% and an amplitude of 1.27%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 77,220 yuan/ton [4]. - International News: Trump relaxed automobile tariff policies, and the US reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country, while Europe was not actively involved in tariff issues [4]. - Domestic News: The National Development and Reform Commission issued the second batch of 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones, and urged the review and payment of allocated funds [4]. - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate processing fee has continued to decline, indicating tight supply at the mine end. The import of US scrap copper has stagnated due to high tariffs, and the supply of smelting raw materials is generally tight. Supply growth may slow down slightly, and the increase in domestic refined copper supply may be limited. The downstream copper processing开工率 is expected to remain high, and social inventory is accelerating to decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: This week, Shanghai copper contracts weakened, and the spot premium increased. As of April 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 715 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 77,220 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 670 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 168,554 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,501 lots [5][9]. - Spot Prices: This week, spot prices weakened. As of April 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 195 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Premium and Position: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper increased, and the net long position of the top 20 increased. As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 113 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton, and the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 3,160 lots, an increase of 17,787 lots compared with last week [17][21]. 3.3 Option Market - The short - term implied volatility of at - the - money Shanghai copper options may converge. As of April 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the main at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of option open interest was 1.2239, a week - on - week increase of 0.186 [22][26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Quotes and Processing Fees: The quotes of upstream copper mines and the processing fees of blister copper weakened. As of the latest data, the quote of copper concentrate in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of southern blister copper was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27][29]. - Imports and Price Difference: The import volume of copper ore decreased slightly, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper widened slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3939 million tons, an increase of 211,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 9.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 970.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 945 yuan/ton [30][34]. - Production and Inventory: Global copper mine production decreased, and port inventory increased. As of February 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.803 million tons, a decrease of 117,000 tons from January, a decline of 6.09%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.9%, an increase of 2.9% from January. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 750,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,000 tons [35][39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply - Refined Copper: Domestic production increased, and the global capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from December, a growth rate of 0.48%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.81%. As of February 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from January, a decline of 7.95%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.1%, an increase of 1% from January [40][43]. - Supply - Import: The import of refined copper increased, and the import profit and loss decreased slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 354,275.469 tons, an increase of 49,142.39 tons from February, a growth rate of 16.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss amount was 394.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 632.52 yuan/ton [46][51]. - Supply - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly. As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 925 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 6,240 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 16,799 tons. The total social inventory was 418,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - Demand - Copper Products: Production decreased, and imports increased month - on - month. As of March 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, a decrease of 147,600 tons from December, a decline of 6.49%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 470,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 11.9%, and a year - on - year decline of 0% [58][62]. - Application - Power and Home Appliances: Power grid investment increased year - on - year, and the production of mainstream home appliances varied. As of March 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid was - 2.5% and 24.8% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 11.9%, - 4.3%, - 12.1%, and - 2.4% year - on - year respectively [64][68]. - Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production of integrated circuits increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of March 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 199.041692 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 85.68%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 42.68% [70][74]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of February 2025, the global refined copper supply was in a state of surplus, with a monthly surplus of 61,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of February 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 75,900 tons [76][80].