国债期货月报：底线思维定调驱动债市上行202505

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is 5.4%, indicating robust economic performance supported by domestic demand and policy measures[22] - CPI decreased by 0.1%, suggesting some deflationary pressure in the economy[30] - Industrial value-added output grew by 7.7%, surpassing the expected 5.8%, reflecting strong recovery in industrial production[30] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.2%, with manufacturing investment rising by 9.1% and infrastructure investment by 11.5%, while real estate investment fell by 9.9%[30] - Retail sales grew by 5.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2%, although consumption in major cities showed significant decline[30] Market Trends - TS2509 futures rose by 0.20%, TF2509 by 0.72%, T2509 by 1.17%, and TL2506 by 4.18% in April, indicating positive market sentiment[22] - The IRR for various bonds showed slight fluctuations, with TL2506 at 1.90% and T2509 at 1.62%[6] Policy Implications - The political bureau meeting emphasized timely and opportunistic policy measures, with potential for accelerated issuance of special bonds and interest rate cuts in Q2[31] - The report suggests a cautious approach to real estate as a short-term economic stimulus, focusing instead on infrastructure investment[31] Trade Relations - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. have led to increased tariffs, impacting trade dynamics and prompting retaliatory measures from China[22]