大越期货玻璃早报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with short - term expectations of mainly oscillating weakly. The supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has risen, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly oscillate weakly in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased by 2.35% from the previous value to 1082 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1164 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 46.43% to 82 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1164 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [16]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.85%. The number of operating production lines and the daily melting volume are at historical lows for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431.43 tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [4][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.989 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has risen, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [5].