大越期货纯碱早报-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch pattern between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1352 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous value; the basis was - 32 yuan, an increase of 3.23% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda process in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda process in North China was - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period of history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.44%, and the operating rate stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash was 75.71 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash was 41.55 tons, and the output declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 60 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 102.69% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline at 75.85%, with weak demand for soda ash [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.22 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 85.71 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the supply and demand of soda ash fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of float glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak; the escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].