大越期货沪铝早报-20250506

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is currently in a neutral state, with factors such as carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The short - term macro sentiment is variable. The long - term outlook is positive for aluminum prices due to carbon neutrality - driven industry transformation, and the tariff sentiment may improve. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to move in a range [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. There are both利多 and利空 factors in the market.利多 factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts.利空 factors include high aluminum rod inventories, poor consumption, a pessimistic global economy suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is variable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 20050, with a basis of 140, indicating a premium over the futures, rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 2740 tons from last week to 175857 tons, rated as neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, rated as neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is short, and the short position is increasing, rated as bearish [2]. - Outlook: Carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, which is long - term positive for aluminum prices. The tariff sentiment may improve, and aluminum prices are expected to move in a range during the holiday [2]. 3.2 Recent利多 and利空 Analysis - 利多 Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - 利空 Factors: Aluminum rod inventories remain at a historical high, with poor consumption; the global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3.3 Daily Summary - Spot Price: The Shanghai spot price was 70770 yesterday, down 375; the South China Storage price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price today is 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons; the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory increased by 699 tons to 70798 tons [4]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there were supply shortages in most years, except for a supply surplus of 150,000 tons in 2024 [23].