大越期货甲醇早报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market's trading atmosphere turned dull, with local prices declining. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures prices. The weakening of the macro - environment and crude oil prices suppressed the futures trend. Although the spot basis in the port was firm, the pre - holiday prices were supported, but the post - holiday prices were under pressure due to the expected increase in supply. The short - term market is expected to be weakly consolidated [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract: - Fundamentals: Neutral. After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market was affected by the decline in crude oil prices, with a dull trading atmosphere and local price drops. The port market was affected by the macro and crude oil situation, but the spot basis was firm. The subsequent supply increase will put pressure on post - holiday prices [4]. - Basis: Bullish. The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Bullish. As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [4]. - Market trend: Bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main position: Bearish. The main position is net short, and there has been a shift from long to short [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - and Short - term Analysis - Bullish factors: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans (such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, Anhui Tanxin, etc.). There are maintenance plans for Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin in mid - to late March. The expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected. The olefin plant is operating at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season. The inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight. The central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates to create a favorable monetary and financial environment, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans (such as Ningxia Changyi, Huayi). The operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low. The weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants. Although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream. Upstream plants are actively selling their products due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it increased by 1.37% from April 24 - 30, while in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 3.79%. The futures closing price of the main contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 2251 yuan/ton [7][8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China and South China ports decreased. The inventory in East China ports decreased by 6.98 tons to 22.92 tons, and in South China ports, it decreased by 3.18 tons to 11.94 tons [7]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average operating rate of the whole country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [7]. - Cost and Profit: The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. The profit of coal - based methanol production decreased by 55 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol production increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained unchanged [20]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, including those in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses [55]. - Overseas Plants: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Marjan, and Kaveh are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, most plants are operating normally, but some have low operating rates or are under maintenance [56]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East, and other regions are operating stably, but some are under maintenance or have uncertain restart times. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Kangju has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with an undetermined restart time [57].