大越期货豆粕早报-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2860 - 2920, maintaining a generally weak and volatile pattern. The soybean A2507 is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180 [9][12]. - The market is focused on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The upgrade of the Sino - US tariff war and technical support, along with uncertainties in South American weather, support the bottom of the soybean and soybean meal market. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market [10][13][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - After the implementation of the Sino - US tariff war, the US soybeans oscillated and rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets returned to a volatile state, showing a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations. The demand for soybean meal after the Spring Festival weakened, but the tight supply supported the price. The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal dropped to a low level, and the spot price was strong [15]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Short - term lower - than - expected domestic import of soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in South American soybean - growing weather [16]. - Bearish factors: The volume of domestic imported soybeans will increase to a high level in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans persists [16]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3270, with a basis of 350, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 7.48 tons, a 40.4% decrease from last week and an 84.69% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 28, showing a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 459.48 tons, a 7.88% increase from last week and a 29.4% increase from the same period last year [13]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. - For soybeans, the short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [13].