大越期货菜粕早报-20250506

Report Overview - The report is a rapeseed meal morning report dated May 6, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The price is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540 [9] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills - Bearish: Increased imports of rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13] 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - Price and Transaction Data: Data on the average transaction price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 21 - 30 are presented, as well as rapeseed meal futures and spot prices during the same period - Warehouse Receipt Data: Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics from April 18 - 30 are provided [14][15][16][24][25] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [10] 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low rapeseed meal inventory at oil mills and short - term recovery in spot demand support the market. The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes have mixed effects - Basis: The spot price is 2480, with a basis of - 56, indicating a discount to the futures price - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 64.07% - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward - Main Position: The main long positions have increased, and capital has flowed in - Expectation: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices are affected by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling. Driven by soybean meal, the price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [10]